The cataclysmic events in Syria have taken the world, at least much of it, by surprise. Their full magnitude and ramifications will be understood only with time. How did proud, progressive Syria come to such a pass? The only parallel is Afghanistan, where a militant group simply strolled into Kabul and took over the country as President Ashraf Ghani fled. In Syria, rebel groups backed by Turkey, many of which had ties with Al Qaeda and other militant groups earlier, after mounting a lightning offensive from northwestern Syria, similarly walked into Damascus, where, without any fight, President Bashar Al Assad's regime gave in. Predictably, the President fled the country with his family. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Al Jalali announced that he had agreed to hand over power to the rebel "Salvation Government ". Main rebel commander Abu Mohammad Al Jolani met the prime minister to coordinate the transfer of power that "guarantees the provision of services".
The comparison with Afghanistan is both inevitable and disappointing. Syrian society was qualitatively different. The country had achieved 100% literacy; women enjoyed equal rights with men; its many minorities and the Al Assad dynasty, ruling Syria for more than five decades and being members of Syria's largest minority group, the Allawites, had kept the country secular. Syria had been at the forefront of pan-Arabism even though it was closely allied with Iran. Till the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, it had been a strong champion of the Palestinian cause, had hosted Hamas and refused to make peace with Israel till the return of the Golan Heights occupied by Israel since the 1967 war. Finally, Syria had, even at enormous human cost, been a bulwark against Sunni radicalism.
What Went Wrong? A Myriad Explanations
We may never know what really happened since November 27, when rebel groups, spearheaded by the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), mounted an offensive from Idlib, which they had been occupying since the beginning of the fratricidal war that has claimed millions of lives. Within two weeks, they were able to sail into Damascus and take over. The world has been taken by surprise because, thanks to military and economic support rendered by Russia, Iran, and Iran-backed Hezbollah, the Assad regime had once been able to reclaim over 70% of Syrian territory from the various terror organisations that occupied parts of the country. This included ISIS too.
Narratives abound: that Western sanctions had ruined the Syrian economy, that long years of the war, together with a lack of reforms, had rendered the Syrian army weak, tired, and without the morale to fight its co-religionists (a majority of Syrians are Sunni Muslims and the rebel groups fighting the Assad regime were almost all Sunni). Assad himself had failed to consolidate the military gains and translate them into political and social ones. Russia, Syria's main military support, was too stretched with the Ukraine conflict to intervene, while Iran had been weakened by Israel. Hezbollah was in disarray too after its war with Israel.
Were Iran's Warnings Ignored?
Russia itself has announced that Assad held talks with the rebels and decided to leave the country without consulting it. The clearest message has come from Iran. According to Iran's FARS News Agency, in June this year, Iran's Supreme Leader Syed Ali Khameini had warned Assad—that was their last meeting—that rebel factions were regrouping and planning an offensive in Syria. Such warnings and preemptive measures were, however, ignored. High-ranking Iranian officials were holding discussions with Assad even hours before he was overthrown. But Assad placed greater trust in his Arab partners, with whom he had had a reconciliation recently. This made Iran decide not to intervene further in Syria. In any case, the "Shia Crescent" created by Iran—stretching through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon—had almost collapsed by then.
Indeed, the last few years did see a rapprochement between Assad and Sunni powers such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, all of whom had initially backed various rebel factions in the Syrian civil war. A variety of geopolitical factors—not least of which was an indifferent United States—and attacks on territory from both the Sunni radical ISIS and Iran-backed Shiite Houthis in Yemen had caused a rethink, leading to their embrace of Assad. After its ouster in 2011, Syria was reinstated into the Arab League last year; a jubilant Assad also visited Saudi Arabia, where he was given a warm welcome. The only major Sunni power to refuse the recognition of Assad-ruled Syria was Qatar, which had financed many of the Syrian rebel groups.
So, what happens now?
Making Of Another Afghanistan?
The HTS, which has taken control of Damascus now, was until some years ago an Al Qaeda affiliate that wanted to establish a caliphate and had engaged in brutal acts of violence. Al Jolani himself had been an Al Qaeda member who spent time in US custody and had a $10 million bounty on his head. In 2016, he announced that HTS had broken ties with Al Qaeda. While some sections in the media are positioning him and the HTS as having mutated into a more moderate rebel faction, it remains to be seen whether this change is genuine or just a tactical move. As in the case of the Taliban, for instance, while its stance regarding its external relations has changed, its attitude towards women and minorities has not.
In any case, any political transition usually faces teething troubles. What is important for the international community is to see that no power vacuum exists for long. For now, Assad's main allies, Russia and Iran, have had to retreat from Syria, though both have said that they are in touch with the rebel leaders. The Joe Biden administration has been bombing ISIS strongholds and monitoring Syrian weapons depots, while President-elect Donald Trump has announced that this is not America's war.
Advantage Turkey?
Israel and Turkey clearly have the upper hand. Israel has pushed into and occupied part of the demilitarised buffer zone on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights to prevent the spillover of any chaos into its own territory. The Israeli Air Force and Navy have struck missile depots, naval vessels, fighter jets and more to ensure they don't fall into the wrong hands. In a statement on Tuesday, the Israeli Defence Forces said that its Air Force and Navy had carried out over 350 strikes against “strategic targets” in Syria, taking out “most of the strategic weapons stockpiles” in an effort to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into the hands of hostile elements.
Turkey, on the other hand, has long been aiding the Syrian rebels; most of the foreign fighters who crossed over into Syria to join the rebels, including ISIS, have gone through the Turkish-Syrian border. It is also widely believed that the current rebel offensive would not have been possible without tacit Turkish approval. In the northwestern regions of Syria, which have been held by the rebels since the civil war began in 2012, both the Syrian revolutionary flag and the Turkish flags fly.
Even though Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has condemned Israel for pushing into Syrian territory and spoken out against any attempts to divide Syria, it is quite possible that Turkey itself may move deeper into Syria, even if by pushing for a bigger buffer zone between its borders and Syria. Turkey may also use some of these groups as leverage to achieve its strategic objectives in the region.
A Kurdish Uprising May Not Be Out Of Question
There is yet another possibility of an enclave in northeastern Syria being carved out for the Kurdish minority. The Syrian Kurds have been at the forefront of the battle against ISIS but also allege widespread oppression by the Assad regime. The emergence of an independent Kurdish enclave would be of strategic value to Israel as well as to the Sunni Arab states. Israel has always maintained good connections with the Kurds, a significant minority community found in countries across the region—Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Interestingly, soon after the new Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz took charge, he made a mention of the Kurds and his support for them in his address. However, an independent Kurdish enclave would vehemently be opposed by Turkey, which has long been waging an internal battle against Kurdish insurgency. It would also be opposed by Iran.
Will Syria Become A Terrorist Hub?
The other security nightmare is that the vacuum, together with the almost defunct Syrian army, may once again draw terrorist groups to set up bases in Syria. The spectre of another monstrosity like ISIS rising again in Syria may not be too far-fetched.
The only hope in this quagmire can be derived from the Syrian people—the many qualified, resilient women and men who have paid a great price and made many sacrifices for their motherland over the years. They are the only ones who can ensure that Syria does not turn into another Afghanistan.
(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
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