The death of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar on Thursday, October 17, by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), is a watershed moment in the Israel-Hamas war that has raged on since October 7 last year.
A senior member of Hamas, Sinwar had taken over its leadership following the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh earlier this year in Tehran. Committed to Israel's destruction, he was the mastermind of the brutal Hamas attacks in October last year, which claimed the lives of over 1,200 Israelis, with more than 200 people taken hostage by the Hamas. Since then, Israeli reprisals have killed almost 42,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Meanwhile, Iran's proxy and ally on Israel's northern borders, the Hezbollah, began launching rocket attacks on Israel. In retaliation, since October 1 this year, Israel has been involved in full-scale military operations in Southern Lebanon and Beirut in a bid to create a buffer zone free of the Hezbollah's presence between Israel and Lebanon.
Following Sinwar's death, US President Joe Biden and European leaders have renewed calls for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Biden said Sinwar's death was "an opportunity to seek a path to peace" in Gaza.
The Two Aspects To Sinwar's Death
However, a ceasefire has proved elusive since Israel's operations in Gaza. All that has been made possible is a few “humanitarian pauses" to let aid reach the besieged people in Gaza. Israel has resisted all calls for a ceasefire, alleging that any such step would be exploited by the Hamas to regroup and remobilise. Shortly after Sinwar's death, Danny Danon, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations wrote on X: "Yesterday at the UN Security Council, many asked why we are still in Gaza a year after the October 7th atrocities. Today they got the answer. No terrorist is immune to the long arm of the IDF. We will not stop until we bring home all of our hostages and eliminate the Hamas monsters.”
There are two aspects to Sinwar's death. On the one hand, defence experts have pointed out that the pictures of the last moments leading to Sinwar's death show him sitting alone in a room above ground. The scene points to significant damage inflicted by the IDF on the numerous underground tunnels that the Hamas used. With the death of numerous high-profile leaders of both the Hamas and the Hezbollah, the organisations are in disarray. The former, especially, has been heavily dismantled. This factor alone may push its other members to surrender and release the 100-odd Israeli hostages still being held captive in the Strip.
Discussions between the US, Israel, the European Union, and Arab states have also revolved around a plan whereby post-war Gaza would see joint-Arab force.
The Question Of Hostages
Israel has turned Gaza into rubble. Even with 42,000 dead in the strip, even after a year of war, it has not been able to achieve one of its major objectives —the release of all hostages. While about 120-odd hostages have been freed—thanks to major back-channel efforts by Qatar, Egypt, and the US—a number of them died in captivity, while about 100-odd hostages are still with the Hamas.
On the other hand, the fact remains that high-profile assassinations like Sinwar's are not something new for the Hamas. Israel has a long history of carrying out such operations, and, if anything, the Hamas has only emerged militarily stronger, inflicting increasingly more brutal attacks on Israelis. The October 7 attacks were a culmination of this history, when Hamas launched multi-pronged strikes on Israel from land, sea, and air, carefully dodging all surveillance and air defence systems. launched multi-pronged strikes on Israel from land, sea, and air, carefully dodging all surveillance and air defence systems. , carefully dodging all surveillance and air defence systems. Many, including those inside Israel, have pointed out that the unprecedented destruction wrought by Israel in Gaza may just be what incentivises others to join the ranks of Hamas and continue its work.
Of course, Hamas has kept up the bravado up too. Sinwar's long-time deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, has said that Sinwar's death “will only increase the strength and resolve of Hamas and our resistance”. What is also interesting is that Fatah, the Hamas's arch-rival and which together with the rest of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation had promised to eschew any violence against Israel, has also officially released a statement mourning the death of "martyr Yahya Sinwar ". Hence, while the world would want nothing more for the hostages to be released and a ceasefire reached, whether it will actually happen remains anyone's guess.
Netanyahu's Quandary
Tellingly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also not committed to any ceasefire. "The war ... is not over yet. And it is difficult, and it exacts heavy prices from us,” Netanyahu said in a video statement after Sinwar's death. He also had a message for the Hamas: “Whoever lays down his weapon and returns our hostages—we will allow him to go on living.”
Indeed, Netanyahu would hope for this to happen. His war on Gaza has not exactly provided him the domestic support he had hoped for, with many in his own country opposing it. As long as the hostages from October 7 remain captive in Gaza, it would be seen as a failure. Besides, with hundreds of IDF soldiers dead and the economy taking an unprecedented hit, the war has taken a great toll on the Israeli people themselves. The conflict has significantly escalated with Israel's air and ground operations in Lebanon, which have killed more than 1,000 people and displaced many Lebanese civilians. After the death of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Iran launched a barrage of missiles directly at Israel, the second time it has done so this year. Israel has vowed to avenge this. And in another symbolic escalation, none other than Netanyahu's house was targeted in a Hezbollah drone strike.
Harris Or Trump, US Support May Continue
There is little incentive for Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire now, when the IDF's successes in Lebanon and the deaths of those like Nasrallah and Sinwar are being hailed by the Israeli people as achievements after a year of opposition, which even saw calls for the government to resign.
More importantly, with US elections just weeks away, Netanyahu understands that he would likely get a free pass. No matter what US Vice President and Democrat Presidential candidate Kamala Harris's domestic compulsions may be, overall, there is unlikely to be any major opposition to Israel's wars. And in case Donald Trump and the Republicans form the next government, they are only expected to take a harsher stance against Iran. Marwan al-Muasher, Jordan's former foreign minister and now Vice-President for Studies at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sums it up: "There is no reason for Netanyahu to stop his wars before the American elections."
Increasingly, it seems both Israel and Hamas, led by some unknown-to-us, apocalyptic vision, are fighting to the finish.
(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst. She has translated the works of Nicholas Roerich from Russian to English)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
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